As winter approaches and electricity demand rises in Central Asia, the region faces ongoing challenges of declining hydropower generation and seasonal shortages. Despite possessing interconnected power systems and complementary energy resources, countries in the area struggle to effectively balance electricity supply and demand, according to energy analysts Farrukh Yunuskhojaev and Odilbek Manabov.
The interconnected power systems of Central Asia currently operate in relative isolation from one another in economic terms. The World Bank estimates that cross-border electricity trade accounts for only about 3% of the region’s total demand. Meanwhile, renewable energy resources contribute approximately 4% of electricity generation. Complementarily, the hydropower resources of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan balance the thermal generation capacity of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
Significant imbalances exist, primarily arising from seasonal variations. For instance, hydropower surplus emerges during the summer months but drops sharply in winter. Past failures in the interconnected grid systems, such as those experienced in 2022 and August 2026, have further underscored the fragile nature of regional electricity supplies. Furthermore, the Eurasian Development Bank forecast suggests that energy demand in the region may rise by up to 40% by 2030, exacerbating these issues.
The establishment of a regional electricity market has become a focal point of discussion among stakeholders. However, the success of this market hinges on effective transmission capacity, reliable dispatch coordination, and well-defined trading and settlement rules. This analysis emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address seasonal deficits, highlighting the role of the Coordinating Dispatch Center Energia (CDC Energia) and international financial institutions.
Current electricity balance data indicate simultaneous deficits and surpluses among the countries. For example, Kyrgyzstan imported approximately 3.9 billion kWh in 2025, about 20% of its consumption, while projections for 2026 anticipate imports rising to 4.1 billion kWh. Kazakhstan generated 123.1 billion kWh against a consumption of 124.6 billion kWh in 2025, with projections to rely solely on domestic generation by early 2027. In contrast, Tajikistan saw a 37% increase in electricity exports but began importing from Uzbekistan in late 2025. Despite these fluctuations, Uzbekistan significantly increased its power generation, producing 86.7 billion kWh, with more than 10.5 billion kWh sourced from renewable energy sources.
The economic implications of these deficits have not been comprehensively quantified but suggest increasing pressures, as demonstrated by the ongoing state of emergency in Kyrgyzstan’s energy sector, which is projected to last until December 2026.
A deeper integration of the regional electricity market is viewed as essential to address these challenges. The Market Interconnectivity and Trade (REMIT) Program, recently approved by the World Bank Board, aims for enhanced electricity trade and infrastructure improvements within a ten-year framework, with an initial funding target of USD 1.018 billion.
The ongoing efforts will involve the establishment of a commercial settlement platform at CDC Energia, promoting transparent trading rules and enabling systematic electricity flow management among the nations. Participation in this project, while currently excluding Kazakhstan, shows strong potential for bolstering future energy cooperation, attracting investments, and mitigating seasonal imbalances. Specific dates for the market’s pilot trading launch have not yet been disclosed, but progress is expected as the project unfolds.
