Recent nationwide polling in South Africa indicates a notable decrease in support for the African National Congress (ANC) and a rise in backing for the Democratic Alliance (DA). Reports from four separate polls reveal that support for the ANC has dropped by at least six percentage points compared to the results of the 2024 national elections, while support for the DA has increased by at least three points.
Poll Findings
The ANC secured 40.2% of the vote in the 2024 national elections. The findings from these polls were conducted by The Common Sense/Social Research Foundation, Ipsos, News24/Sabi, and a second study from The Common Sense/Social Research Foundation. The first TCS/SRF poll was published in August, followed by Ipsos’s results in early September. News24/Sabi released its data in early October, and the second TCS/SRF poll’s findings were disclosed in mid-October.
The polls indicate that the support for the Mk Party has remained relatively stable, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) showed varied results, with some polls suggesting a slight rise and others indicating a decrease in their support.
It is important to note that these national polls might not fully represent local election dynamics, especially in larger urban areas like Gauteng province. The aggregated data could mask a more significant decline in ANC support in these cities. Additionally, smaller parties may play a crucial role in local coalitions that these national polls do not capture.
For instance, while national support for the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) stands at about 3% to 5%, it may still position the party as a potential “kingmaker” in eThekwini. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) holds notable influence in Tshwane, and ActionSA is now represented in all three metros of Gauteng. Meanwhile, the Patriotic Alliance (PA), which has less than 2.5% support nationally, might still affect coalition dynamics in metros and rural areas of the Western Cape.
The political landscape continues to evolve as South Africa approaches its next electoral events, with expected changes in public sentiment and party support potentially impacting local governance and coalitions.
