Record numbers of overlapping vessel departures have highlighted ongoing instability in global container shipping schedules, raising concerns for operations between Asia and Europe.
Recent market analysis indicates that although more container capacity is available on major East-West trade routes, this does not equate to more reliable shipping services. Delays accumulated during the third quarter of the year have led to vessels entering subsequent sailing windows, which has disrupted traditional capacity adjustments. This situation creates uncertainty for shippers planning cargo movements for November and December.
As shipping companies shorten voyages by returning through the Suez Canal, the industry is facing potential further schedule disruptions. Ships traveling different routes may converge at European entry points, contributing to heightened congestion.
Double Sailings Reach All-Time High
Container shipping typically operates on a weekly basis, with vessels departing from specific ports once a week. When a vessel experiences delays, its departure may slip into the following week and coincide with the next scheduled ship. This overlapping, or double sailing, temporarily increases capacity in a given week, but largely consists of vessels and cargo that were delayed.
Typhoons and prolonged congestion at major ports in Asia have intensified vessel bunching, pushing double sailings to levels not seen since the disruptions of the pandemic in 2021. According to Sea-Intelligence, double sailings accounted for 19% of departures on Asia-Mediterranean services in October and November, and 17% on Asia-North Europe routes. The trend has also affected trans-Pacific routes, with double sailings on Asia-US East Coast services reaching 18%.
The pressing issue for shippers is not only the frequency of sailings but also whether shipments will adhere to their originally scheduled transit and delivery plans.
Potential Impact on Freight Rates
With easing congestion at Chinese ports and increasing effective vessel capacity, freight rates are facing renewed downward pressure. Drewry’s World Container Index reported a 1% decline for the week ending November 5, indicating softer market conditions on major East-West routes. Despite carriers’ efforts to raise freight rates in anticipation of annual contract negotiations, the growing supply of capacity may limit their ability to enforce such increases. From November 9 to December 14, carriers have announced 46 blank sailings across leading East-West routes, equivalent to about 6% of planned departures.
Half of these cancellations come from Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean services. Although 94% of scheduled sailings are expected to operate, ongoing vessel arrivals and schedule adjustments may lead to significant variations in capacity availability among different services.
Risks of Congestion from Suez Canal Transition
The return of container shipping services through the Suez Canal is gaining momentum after nearly two years of diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Currently, about 60% of Asia-Europe container capacity utilizes the Suez route, especially on Asia-Mediterranean services. While this transition is expected to enhance transit times and network efficiency, it introduces short-term risks of disruption.
Concerns persist that vessels returning through the Suez could arrive at Northern European ports simultaneously with those completing longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope. This situation could create concentrated arrival peaks at major ports like Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges, and Hamburg, leading to simultaneous demands for berths, cranes, and inland transport.
As a result, shippers may experience congestion, increased container dwell times, and disrupted delivery schedules, despite the improvement in advertised ocean transit times. Metro is actively monitoring vessel schedules and port arrivals in Northern Europe to mitigate potential disruptions and serve customer needs effectively. Shippers are encouraged to consult with Metro’s ocean freight team to review their upcoming Asia-Europe shipments and explore alternative services as the market adjusts.
