The security summit in Moscow on Wednesday is set to highlight the strained relations between Russia and Armenia amid Armenia’s suspension of participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to chair the session of the CSTO, a military alliance established after the collapse of the Soviet Union, which has been dominated by Russia.
Since February 2024, Armenia has effectively boycotted the CSTO following its defeat in a war against Azerbaijan, citing the organization’s failure to provide adequate support during the conflict. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Armenia “de facto doesn’t participate in the CSTO’s operations,” and indicated that the future of Armenia’s role in the bloc will depend on the outcomes of the discussions at the summit.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently stated, “our interest in the CSTO has run its course,” signaling a significant shift in Yerevan’s approach to the alliance.
During the 2020 conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, the CSTO did not fulfill its primary obligation of mutual defense, leading to dissatisfaction within Armenia. Neither Russia nor other CSTO member states—including Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—deployed troops to assist Armenia, despite the charter’s provisions for such actions. Meanwhile, Russia maintains military bases in Armenia, housing thousands of servicemen and border guards.
Azerbaijan, which withdrew from the CSTO in 1999, utilized advanced weaponry purchased from Russia, along with equipment from Turkey and Israel, to achieve military success against Armenia.
Pashinyan, who has adopted a critical stance toward Moscow since taking office in 2018, is also pursuing closer ties with the European Union. Analysts suggest that Armenia’s detachment from the CSTO reflects a larger transformation in the Soviet sphere of influence, particularly as Russia grapples with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and faces international sanctions.
Experts have expressed concern that Armenia’s diminished relationship with the CSTO is indicative of Moscow’s weakening influence over former Soviet states. Galiya Ibragimova, a Central Asia expert, described attempts to strip Armenia of its voting rights within the CSTO as “a demonstrative whipping,” suggesting that other member states may refrain from criticism due to their economic reliance on Russia.
In recent months, countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus have sought new forms of military collaboration, such as the Türkiye-led Organization of Turkic States, which includes key regional players like Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan, which has previously participated in the CSTO, has opted to maintain its status as an observer state.
Amid these tensions, the primary agenda of the Moscow summit is expected to center on the security situation in Afghanistan. Russian officials have indicated that around 23,000 fighters from various armed groups are operating in the region, posing a potential threat to Central Asian nations.
According to Ruslan Suleymanov, an associate fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, the CSTO is taking the developments in Afghanistan seriously, particularly given the activities of groups like ISIL, which has engaged in recruitment across Central Asia. There has also been a focus on bolstering security along the Afghan-Tajik border this year.
