Recent findings suggest that China’s population figures, which have long fueled the country’s economic ambitions, may be significantly overstated. A study by Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, claims that China’s actual population could be approximately 1.27 billion, rather than the official figure of 1.4 billion. This discrepancy could indicate a shortfall of around 130 million people, similar to the entire population of Mexico.
Yi’s research raises questions about the strategic implications of this demographic data for both China and the United States. He argues that overly optimistic confidence within Beijing and rising anxiety in Washington can be attributed to these inflated estimates.
To support his claims, Yi references discrepancies found in China’s health and education statistics. For instance, he highlights the vaccination protocol for newborns, which mandates the BCG tuberculosis vaccine to be administered within 24 hours of birth. He notes that multi-dose vials are often discarded after 30 minutes, yielding only 1.2 to 1.6 usable doses per vial. Between 2018 and 2020, the government approved about 5.8 million vials annually. However, official data reported over 14 million births each year, suggesting that, under the current practices, each vial would vaccinate an implausible 2.4 infants—a statistic Yi contends is unfeasible.
The findings propose a critical reevaluation of China’s demographic data, which has been a cornerstone of its economic narrative and aspirations. Observers anticipate that this research may stir discussions about the implications for economic planning and international relations.
