Recent estimates suggest that Africa’s solar energy expansion may be substantially larger than current official figures indicate. Ember reported that Africa added 12.0 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in 2025, nearly double the 6.2 GW recorded by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and more than double the 4.6 GW reported by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
This discrepancy highlights a significant shift in the continent’s solar landscape. Ember estimates that approximately 20 GW of the 26 GW of solar capacity added in Africa between 2023 and 2025 consists of distributed solar systems. These systems, which include small-scale installations at homes, shops, and businesses, are not consistently reported by national authorities.
The trend bears resemblance to Pakistan’s recent energy shift, where high electricity costs and unreliable supply led consumers to adopt solar solutions rapidly, often outpacing formal regulatory counting. Africa faces similar challenges, including weak infrastructure, high diesel prices, and the declining costs of solar technology, aided by an expanding Chinese supply chain.
According to Chinese customs data, China exported 23 GW of solar panels to Africa during the 12 months leading up to June 2026, marking a 53% increase year-on-year. Ember’s updated methodology predicts that Africa will install 17 GW in 2026, a 45% rise from 2025, which equates to about 47 megawatts (MW) or approximately 100,000 panels daily.
Geographically, the uptake of solar is expanding beyond established markets. In 2025, notable increases in panel imports were reported in Zambia, Botswana, Sudan, and Algeria, with significant growth also observed in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zimbabwe.
Data from the Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA) reinforces concerns about the accuracy of current measurements. AFSIA’s project database indicates 23.4 GW of operational solar in Africa, whereas Chinese export data shows 58.1 GW of solar modules imported since 2017. Adjusted estimates suggest Africa’s installed capacity could actually reach 63.9 GW—almost three times what is recorded in current databases.
These revelations challenge previous forecasts, such as the IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook 2022, which predicted 125 GW of new solar photovoltaic capacity from 2021 to 2030. While Africa has not yet reached this cumulative total, the annual installation pace is approaching, with Ember’s estimates for 2026 indicating a need for only about 14 GW annually to meet that goal.
The evolving situation suggests a potential shift in how solar energy is deployed across the continent. As consumers increasingly invest in personal solar generation, the bureaucratic processes tied to larger solar parks may not keep pace with the rapid growth of smaller, decentralized systems.
