China and Southeast Asian nations have made significant strides in discussions regarding a potential South China Sea agreement but have fallen short of finalizing the deal by the end of this year, as originally planned. Three regional diplomats reported this development on Wednesday, November 11.
Negotiations on the “code of conduct” began in 2005, aimed at fostering self-restraint among countries involved in territorial disputes in the South China Sea, a vital global trade route. The agreement seeks to prevent confrontations from escalating into serious conflicts that could destabilize the region.
In 2023, China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) committed to accelerating the negotiation process with an aim to reach a conclusion by year’s end. According to the diplomats with direct knowledge of the talks, approximately 80% of the provisions have been provisionally agreed upon following the final negotiation round last month.
However, critical issues remain unresolved, including the geographic scope of the accord, definitions of key terms, and whether the agreement should carry legal weight. The diplomats, who requested anonymity, indicated that these discussions will need to continue into next year when ASEAN’s leadership rotates to Singapore.
Under the Philippines’ leadership this year, ASEAN has increased the frequency of meetings to at least once a month, enabling negotiators to address outstanding issues more effectively. China, alongside Malaysia, has played a crucial role in facilitating at least ten significant negotiation rounds throughout the year.
The ongoing discussions, along with other incidents in the South China Sea, will be a focal point at the upcoming ASEAN summit in Manila, which begins this weekend. Leaders will also meet with officials from both Asian and Western countries, including the United States and China.
The South China Sea remains a contentious area, with China and several ASEAN member states—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam—engaged in longstanding territorial disputes. Recent years have seen heightened tensions, particularly between Chinese and Philippine maritime forces, underscoring the area’s significance in the context of U.S.-China relations.
The U.S. has reiterated its commitment to defend the Philippines should its forces face armed attacks, including those occurring in the South China Sea, while China has urged the U.S. to refrain from interfering in what it terms a purely Asian issue.
