Bosnia and Herzegovina’s recent general election showed a significant shift in voter behavior, with many citizens aligning more closely along ethnic lines, according to analysts. This marks a departure from the civic-oriented sentiment that characterized the previous election. The center-right Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) did not take part in the state government, further altering the political landscape.
In the Republika Srpska entity, Milorad Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) once again emerged as the dominant party. In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Darijana Filipovic of the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) was elected to the state presidency, replacing Zeljko Komsic of the Democratic Front, a party that emphasized a more civic-centric approach over the last eight years.
Sacir Filandra, a political science professor at the University of Sarajevo, remarked that these results reflect a larger trend of strengthening conservative politics in a Europe marked by rising nationalism and insecurity. “The basis of this voter choice is insecurity, anxiety, uncertainty, and, to some extent, fear,” he stated, highlighting a growing alignment with right-wing forces throughout the continent.
The new presidency’s configuration is particularly noteworthy; Filipovic’s victory means that the only member representing a multi-ethnic political orientation is Bosniak Denis Becirovic of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Now, with Filipovic and Zeljka Cvijanovic, the candidate from the SNSD, the representation of national interests is expected to become more pronounced, in contrast to the more civic-focused leadership seen in the past few years.
In the parliamentary elections, the SDA was a leading party in the Federation in terms of votes, alongside solid performances from HDZ and SNSD. HDZ claimed a significant win among Croat voters, while Dodik’s SNSD garnered the largest share of votes in both entity and state parliamentary elections.
Dragan Covic, leader of HDZ BiH, has previously expressed concerns about the representation of Croats in the presidency, which he believed had been compromised by Komsic’s victories. Following Filipovic’s election, he publicly acknowledged the support from Bosniaks in his party’s success, indicating a possible easing of the tensions that had characterized Croat-Bosniak relations in recent years.
The voter turnout for this election was approximately 40%, a drop of 10% from the previous electoral cycle, which some analysts attribute to growing apathy among voters. Srecko Latal, an independent analyst, noted that advancements in technology may have helped mitigate concerns about voting fraud.
Looking ahead, Dragan Markovina, a historian and columnist, pointed to the potential for a new coalition among the SDA, SNSD, and HDZ that could mirror past governance patterns. He expressed concerns that such alliances might hinder progressive movements and contribute to political stagnation. “Bosnia is moving backwards,” Markovina warned, reflecting on the rise of nationalist sentiments both locally and across Europe.
