As the 2026 college football season reaches its midpoint, CBS Sports revisits preseason predictions made during the summer months to assess where analysts went wrong. Acknowledging the unpredictable nature of the season, the publication highlights ten of the most significant misjudgments regarding various teams and players.
Major Missteps in Preseason Predictions
The first glaring error was the expectation that the Michigan Wolverines would average over 35 points per game. CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli had predicted the team would build on its prior year’s scoring average of 24.8 points. Currently, the Wolverines have fallen short, averaging just 22.7 points, placing them 105th nationally, prompting a quarterback change from Bryce Underwood to Tommy Carr.
Another projection that missed the mark was the prediction that Maryland would “surprise” analysts this season. Despite being touted as the Big Ten’s most underrated team, Maryland has struggled with a 2-5 record and ranks 83rd in total defense following a loss to Rutgers. Head Coach Mike Locksley has since fired defensive coordinator Ted Monachino.
Oregon was favored to win the national championship due to its strong roster, including quarterback Dante Moore and wide receiver Evan Stewart. However, after two losses, including a significant defeat to Oklahoma State, the Ducks still have a chance in the College Football Playoff race but face ongoing quarterback challenges due to Moore’s concussion.
TCU quarterback Jaden Craig was expected to be a standout player, with some analysts predicting he would win Big 12 Player of the Year. However, after a rocky debut and only moderate success against weaker opponents, his performance ranks lower than anticipated, with ten touchdowns but five interceptions so far this season.
Texas A&M was labeled as the most underrated team, built on an experienced roster and guided by quarterback Marcel Reed. Yet, after three losses in four games, Reed’s performance has not reached expectations, ranking low in passing statistics within the SEC.
Texas entered the season with aspirations of winning a national championship but has experienced setbacks, highlighted by a disappointing loss to Florida. Although Arch Manning had standout moments, the team’s struggles have left its playoff hopes dwindling, with the offensive line underperforming significantly.
In an unexpected twist, Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith was not projected to win the Heisman Trophy, with all expert picks favoring quarterbacks. As the season progresses, Smith has emerged as a frontrunner for the award, tying career touchdown records while ranking high in national receiving statistics.
This examination of preseason predictions reveals the unpredictable nature of college football, compounded by significant changes and challenges teams face throughout the season. As October unfolds, analysts will be re-evaluating their early assessments in hopes of refining their insights for the remainder of the season.
