Research led by the University of Bristol indicates that early warning systems for severe weather in Africa are failing to adequately protect populations, leaving millions vulnerable to extreme weather events. The international study was published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
In 2025, climate-related incidents impacted at least 13 million people across the continent. Over the past decade, extreme weather events disproportionately affected many regions; for example, Tropical Cyclone Freddy in February 2023 caused significant flooding and over 1,500 fatalities, while a drought from 2015 to 2016 led to widespread crop failures and food insecurity, affecting 40 million individuals in southern Africa.
Despite improvements in weather forecasting, many communities still do not receive timely warnings or lack trust in their accuracy. A survey across Madagascar, Malawi, and Mozambique revealed that while a majority received alerts about tropical cyclones—90% in Madagascar, 80% in Malawi, and 77% in Mozambique—fewer than half took action to evacuate when warned.
The study, involving collaboration between researchers from the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute for the Environment and academics from various countries, identifies barriers to effective warning uptake. These include inadequate timing of alerts, skepticism regarding their content, and limited resources for evacuation.
Professor Lizzie Kendon, a climate science expert at the University of Bristol and lead author of the study, emphasized the need for comprehensive approaches to enhance early warning systems. “Accurate forecasts are not enough. We must ensure that warnings reach everyone, communicate risks clearly, and empower communities to take necessary precautionary actions,” she said. Kendon noted that addressing these challenges is critical as the United Nations’ Early Warnings for All initiative approaches its 2027 goal to ensure global protection through early warning systems.
The research team outlined six key intervention strategies to strengthen these systems: understanding risks related to unprecedented events; stress-testing existing early warning systems; enhancing the capabilities of national hydrometeorological services; engaging communities to foster resilience; integrating local and scientific knowledge; and improving coordination among agencies.
Kendon warned that climate change is expected to introduce extreme weather patterns beyond historical norms, which underscores the importance of proactive planning and risk assessment. The study is supported by the REPRESA project and funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and the International Development Research Council in Canada under the CLARE program.
The study is published under the title “Opportunities for increasing resilience to changing severe weather in southern Africa: Early Action and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity for All” in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
