Democrats appear poised to gain control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives following the recent elections, marking a significant victory for the party. However, analysts suggest that this change in Congress will likely have little impact on President Donald Trump’s foreign policy regarding Ukraine and Europe.
Political experts note that the relatively limited foreign policy powers of Congress, combined with Trump’s focus on executive authority, could restrict Congress’s ability to influence U.S. foreign engagements significantly over the next two years. According to James Green, a research fellow at the Center for European Reform, even with a Democratic Congress, the likelihood of altering the current trajectory of U.S. foreign policy is low. “Congress has the ability to slow that car down, maybe make it put on a turn signal, but it’s going to be very difficult for Congress to change the overall route over the next two years,” Green explained.
Congress’s Limited Role
While the Democratic Party will officially hold the constitutional powers of Congress, such as declaring war and controlling military funding, many of these powers have been ceded to the presidency since the Vietnam War, as noted by Joan Lee, a policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations. “You see consistently when something arises, Congress deferring to the presidency to make a foreign policy decision,” she said.
Congress still maintains some legislative control over critical spending bills like the National Defense Authorization Act. However, Trump has been known to engage in “pocket rescissions,” where he does not spend funds that Congress has authorized. Lee adds that should Congress seek to increase funding for Ukraine, Trump might simply choose not to allocate those funds.
Additionally, threats of government shutdowns over spending bills may not effectively compel Democrats to restore support for Ukraine, as foreign policy issues hold little weight in domestic politics. Political analysts believe it is more likely that shutdown risks would arise over healthcare or other domestic concerns.
Despite Congress’s oversight authority, Trump’s assertion of executive privilege complicates efforts to summon members of his administration for congressional hearings. Peter Rough, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, remarked, “I don’t think the midterms will dramatically shape Trump’s policy toward Europe one way or another.”
Juraj Majcin, a policy analyst at the European Policy Centre, noted that disappointing results for Republicans may lead Trump to intensify restrictions on U.S. support for Ukraine.
New Legislative Powers
Congress recently passed the Graham Act, which imposes sanctions on Russia and countries purchasing Russian oil, giving the Trump administration additional tariff authority. Despite this, Trump deferred sanctions on Russia in exchange for a deal involving diesel fuel. This legislation could enable the administration to impose tariffs on European countries continuing to import Russian oil, expanding executive power at the expense of Congress’s authority, according to Lee.
MEP Bernd Lange also suggested that a Democratic victory in Congress might inspire Trump to pursue more confrontational trade and tariff policies, describing the potential for a “lame duck” president to become more aggressive in his approach.
Future Considerations
The next significant shift in U.S. foreign policy toward Europe and Ukraine is not expected until after the 2028 presidential elections. Experts urge European Union member states to begin dialogues with the new Congress and future presidential candidates to influence how they perceive transatlantic relations. The progressive faction of the Democratic Party may pose specific challenges, focusing more on industrial policy and climate change than military support, which could affect troop deployments in Europe.
Despite the significance of the U.S. in European matters, there is a concern that the region’s issues remain a low priority in American politics. “The biggest risk that Europeans risk with the Democratic Party is falling into some sort of irrelevance,” Lee concluded.
