The University of Pennsylvania hosted a discussion with David Wasserman, a prominent elections analyst from the Cook Political Report, on Monday. He addressed the competitive landscape of congressional races and potential trends leading up to the 2026 midterm elections.
During a question-and-answer session organized by the Penn Political Union on November 2, students inquired about various topics, including redistricting, election forecasting, and early indicators that could influence control of the House of Representatives. Wasserman emphasized that current congressional races offer insights into demographic and political shifts that may impact future presidential elections.
Wasserman noted that his fascination with congressional elections is rooted in their ability to highlight emerging voter preferences ahead of presidential contests. “I think congressional races offer a brilliant preview of trends in the electorate that are coming down the pike that impact what the presidential race might look like four or eight years down the road,” he explained.
He highlighted the importance of analyzing individual districts to assess electoral outcomes, suggesting that demographic trends and national shifts can provide critical context beyond polling data. “Paying attention to those national shifts and the demographic trends within each district tells you just as much as the polling,” Wasserman stated.
The discussion also touched on the evolving landscape of polling, particularly as prediction markets gain traction in providing election forecasts. Wasserman expressed concern that reliance on these markets might diminish the incentive for media organizations to conduct independent polling. He raised issues regarding the accessibility of information, questioning how traders could have access to private polling data that is not available to the general public. “How can you possibly police that?” he asked.
While analyzing specific House races, Wasserman identified districts in Kentucky, Florida, and Virginia as key areas to watch on election night for early performance indicators. He noted that a Democratic win in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district would signify a strong potential for the party to gain more than 20 seats. Indeed, Democrat Zach Dembo’s victory there flipped the seat previously held by Republican Ralph Alvarado.
On the topic of gerrymandering, Wasserman predicted that Republican redistricting efforts might yield fewer gains than expected. He pointed out that in Texas, Republicans aimed to flip five Democratic seats but might only achieve one or two, aligning with trends observed in recent election analyses.
Wasserman underscored the significance of candidates’ backgrounds and messaging in relation to their constituents. He noted that Republican candidates who carve out political identities separate from Donald Trump often perform better. Regarding Pennsylvania’s 1st congressional district, Wasserman predicted that Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick would retain his seat by distancing himself from Trump, which could bolster his support among Bucks County voters.
Penn senior Neil Pereira, who serves as the Vice President of External Affairs for the Penn Political Union, remarked that Wasserman’s insights highlighted the relevance of midterm elections for shaping future electoral landscapes. Looking towards the 2028 presidential election, Wasserman anticipated an “extremely crowded” Democratic primary, where candidates could thrive by cultivating a dedicated base even if it represents a small percentage of the party.
Wasserman encouraged students pursuing careers in politics or journalism to seek hands-on experience in congressional campaigns and to develop a deep understanding of specific issues or regions. “Sometimes there’s a danger in getting too bogged down in theoretical politics at the expense of learning about politics at the practical level,” he concluded.
