A market vendor in Indonesia may find it challenging to secure a bank loan despite processing numerous QR payments throughout the day. This discrepancy arises as many small businesses lack a formal credit history or sufficient collateral. On October 26, 2026, Bank Indonesia announced plans to utilize transaction histories from the national QR payment standard, known as QRIS, in assessing creditworthiness for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). By the third quarter of 2026, QRIS had been adopted by 49.4 million merchants, approximately 97 percent of whom were MSMEs.
This proposal emerges during a turbulent period regarding economic opportunities in the region. Protests erupted in Indonesia in August 2025 over political allowances, escalating following the death of a motorcycle taxi driver due to a police vehicle. Similarly, protests in Nepal, inspired by corruption and limited opportunities, were marked by a social media ban. Demonstrations in Morocco and Madagascar also showcased public discontent over inadequate services and economic challenges. These movements highlight how fragile public trust can become when economic progress feels disconnected from everyday realities.
The UN World Social Report 2025 warns that economic insecurity and persistent inequality are eroding social cohesion. While credit accessibility cannot resolve governance and service failures, it reflects a deeper concern: whether diligent work today can lead to a better standard of living tomorrow.
Challenges of Financial Invisibility
Evaluating a productive small enterprise can be complex for lenders. Without audited accounts or previous loans, businesses may miss opportunities essential for growth. Transaction histories can provide valuable insights into turnover and business continuity, aspects often overlooked by traditional credit records.
A 2022 study by the Bank for International Settlements indicated that QR payment records helped Chinese merchants secure credit, resulting in increased sales, even during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the Chinese model contrasts with what is proposed in Indonesia, which centers around a national payment standard. In the Philippines, the Paleng-Kita program incorporates merchant QR histories to assess loans, illustrating the versatility of payment data.
Access to credit does not automatically ensure wealth creation. A 2015 study of microcredit found limited transformative impacts on welfare, stressing the difference between receiving a loan and benefiting from it. The access to credit, wealth creation, and wealth distribution are distinct outcomes that need careful evaluation, especially in the context of unequal access to technology.
The digital divide compounds existing challenges. A March 2026 ILO report indicated that workers in developing economies face less automation exposure than those in advanced economies. This disparity poses risks for small businesses lacking digital payment histories, which may struggle to secure financing and subsequently invest in necessary resources for advancement. The distribution of capabilities within the economy will ultimately influence whether technological advancements promote or hinder economic equality.
Indonesia currently provides subsidized lending for MSMEs through various initiatives. However, growth in MSME bank credit remains modest compared to the overall banking sector, with only a 2.32 percent increase year-on-year as of August 2026, as indicated in the OJK’s September report. This slow growth may reflect limited demand or supply constraints.
The IMF indicated that a rapid increase in borrowers often signals risks for financial stability, especially when coupled with a broader credit boom. The quality of new loans is critical; cash-heavy enterprises may be evaluated unfavorably by credit algorithms due to less predictable financial histories.
Moreover, questions surrounding data transparency and the control of merchant data are crucial. Current Indonesian laws recognize rights around personal data, though their applicability to future QRIS scoring models requires thorough legal analysis. Appropriate impact assessments are necessary to ensure that data usage does not reinforce existing inequalities.
As Indonesia enhances its financial infrastructure, the effectiveness of QRIS in facilitating economic opportunities for MSMEs remains to be seen. Stakeholders, including Bank Indonesia and potential lenders, must focus not only on access to credit but also on the outcomes and economic resilience of the businesses that receive it. In this evolving landscape, the true potential of digital finance lies in expanding genuine opportunities for wealth creation rather than merely extending credit access.
