As energy demand peaks across Europe, experts are set to gather in Brussels on October 21–22 to discuss the challenges of balancing climate neutrality, energy security, and industrial competitiveness—a dilemma known as the “energy trilemma.” This discussion will take place during the European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform (ECEMP), focusing on the theme “Climate Change, Energy Security and Competitiveness: Modelling an energy system under stress.”
This summer, Italy experienced unprecedented electricity consumption due to a heatwave, reaching a record high of 57.4 gigawatts on June 29 and exceeding 58 gigawatts two weeks later. According to grid operators, electricity demand fluctuated with weather conditions and the ongoing geopolitical crisis affecting energy imports.
Erik Delarue, head of the Energy Systems Integration and Modelling group at KU Leuven, emphasized that the focus on maximizing cost and emissions has shifted in recent years due to the war’s impact on Europe’s energy landscape. He pointed out that many current models struggle to incorporate factors like human behavior and weather, complicating efforts to develop reliable energy solutions.
Pedro Crespo del Granado, an energy economist at NTNU, noted the necessity for the European Union to establish a medium-term strategy for natural gas. He argued that existing models, which rely on assumptions of perfect market conditions and complete cooperation among nations, fail to capture the complexities of real-world scenarios, particularly regarding the economic viability of current gas infrastructure in the coming years.
While discussing the social implications of energy policy, Crespo del Granado also highlighted that many modeling approaches do not adequately address public acceptance of rapid grid deployment or the regulatory changes needed to support it. He argued that contrasting scenarios can illuminate the hidden costs of expansion that often go overlooked in standard models.
In wartime Ukraine, the case study from the iDesignRES project revealed significant insights into managing energy systems under conflict. Stakeholder discussions indicated a strong desire among Ukrainian representatives for faster grid interconnection with Europe, indicating a shared motivation for closer energy ties despite the ongoing war.
Experts are calling for a shift towards multi-objective optimization that accounts for multiple factors simultaneously, rather than treating them as mere constraints. Niina Helistö, who coordinates the Mopo project, is working on developing tools to enhance the connection between various energy models, aiming for a more comprehensive approach to energy system planning.
However, challenges in pricing dynamics and public policy continue to pose hurdles. Crespo del Granado stressed that understanding the impact of price fluctuations remains a complex issue for modelers and policymakers alike.
With expectations of an intensified El Niño and an unstable geopolitical energy landscape, the ongoing discourse surrounding the energy trilemma underscores the need for better models and collaborative efforts among European nations to identify effective solutions amidst ongoing pressures on energy systems.
