Confidence among US biomedical PhD students and postdoctoral researchers has sharply declined over the past six months, according to a working paper from researchers at Harvard, MIT, and Monash University. The study, which surveyed 916 individuals across 770 laboratories, found that the percentage of respondents likely to remain in academia dropped from 66% to 44% between September 2024 and March 2025.
The decline in confidence is attributed to recent funding freezes and changes in federal science policy. “The change was seeping into the interviews… the anxiety was palpable,” said Raffaella Sadun, a Harvard Business School professor involved in the study. Respondents expressed that uncertainty regarding the research funding environment was affecting their career decisions.
The working paper, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, noted that the survey captured respondents’ sentiments at two time points, allowing for a clear comparison of career intentions. Respondents’ likelihood of remaining in the United States also fell significantly, from 93% to 72%. Foreign-born scientists reported a more pronounced decline, with those intending to stay in the US dropping by approximately 31%, in contrast to a 16% decrease among US-born scientists.
Responses indicated that satisfaction with the decision to pursue a PhD in science dropped from 92% to 76% within the same period. These declines were consistent across different lab sizes and funding sources, highlighting a widespread sentiment rather than isolated instances. “What you’re looking at is a significant shrinking of a population of scientists that you’ve created,” Sadun remarked, signaling potential long-term implications for the research and development landscape.
The authors of the study expressed that while the survey reflects stated intentions for career paths, it does not confirm actual departures from academia. Plans are underway to continue tracking these individuals to determine whether their sentiments shift as the funding climate stabilizes. The results contribute to a broader trend observed in academia, including reduced PhD admissions and increased relocations of researchers abroad, suggesting challenges for the future workforce in the scientific community.
