Russia’s efforts to strengthen its influence in Africa face significant obstacles, particularly regarding its economic contributions and security partnerships. Challenges highlighted include declining arms exports and concerns about Moscow’s ability to deliver lasting benefits to the continent.
This assessment comes from Martin Minns, Co-Executive Producer of the Pan-Africa podcast, Panel 54, following the third Russia–Africa Summit, which took place in Moscow from October 28 to 29, 2026. The summit attracted 22 African heads of state, according to the Kremlin. This represents a drop from 43 leaders in 2019 and 17 at the last summit held in St. Petersburg in 2023.
The Kremlin attributed the reduced attendance to what it termed “outrageous” Western pressure. However, Minns suggested that the more pressing questions involve what tangible benefits Africa could gain from this summit and whether it could lead to sustainable partnerships.
He noted that Russia’s economic engagement with Africa has remained limited, making up less than one percent of total foreign direct investment on the continent. Furthermore, Russian global arms exports fell by 64 percent between 2021 and 2025, weakening its influence and reliability in security matters.
In the Sahel region, where Russia’s security involvement has been questioned, annual deaths linked to violent extremism have surged from an average of 927 between 2016 and 2019 to 10,470 from 2022 to 2025, according to Minns. He identified the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as a significant factor hindering Moscow’s capacity to uphold its military, economic, and diplomatic commitments in Africa.
Minns also pointed to the perception damage Russia has suffered, particularly related to the recruitment of Africans to fight in the Ukraine conflict. An October 2026 report from the Hague-based Journalists for Justice indicated that over 3,000 African citizens from 40 countries had been enlisted into the Russian military, often through deceptive tactics that promised civilian employment.
While a recent agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kenyan President William Ruto aimed to prevent the recruitment of Kenyans into the Russian military, Minns expressed skepticism regarding its effectiveness, citing reports of Russia expanding recruitment efforts in other countries such as Zimbabwe, Burundi, and Sierra Leone.
Minns observed that African governments are increasingly adopting a policy of “diversified non-alignment,” engaging with Russia alongside other global partners to pursue their own economic and security interests. He emphasized that Russia’s future standing in Africa will depend on its ability to turn political promises into concrete advantages for African nations.
“Ultimately, Russia’s standing as a partner will depend on its ability to provide sustained economic benefits, reliable security partnerships, and tangible outcomes for African countries,” Minns stated, adding that while the Moscow summit displayed Russia’s ambitions, its actions moving forward will determine the viability of those goals. “As they say: ‘talk is cheap,’” he concluded.
